December 31st, 2006

2007 Predictions

by

The obligatory (self-indulgent) prognostications — in no particular order or degree of certainty:

Major print publication ceases publishing in print
This is inevitable, and the probability increases each year, so it’s a pretty safe prediction — the real tipping point will happen when a publisher convinces top advertisers to value ads on the web-only pub as much (or nearly as much) as they valued the (overpriced) print ads.

Google’s growth slows
This is also inevitable, either because of the law of large numbers or the law of one-tick ponies — expect more moribund results from Google’s offline advertising efforts.

More Web 2.0 companies shut down than launch
Again, inevitable, and part of the natural evolution of the market (bubble or not) — also expect fewer acquisition exits than in 2006 (and certainly none above $1 billion).

Online video advertising grows, but not as fast as everyone would like
In a recent Burst Media survey, “78% of the respondents in the survey said online video ads were intrusive, and 63% said video ads disrupted their Web surfing experience.” No one has come up with a good alternative to pre-roll ads. Plus nobody knows how all of these online video ads that nobody wants to watch are going to get made. Issues aplenty.

RSS use grows but again falls (way) short of mainstream adoption
A major obstacle to RSS adoption has long been the non-user-friendly applications, e.g. all of those XML symbols and RSS links that land unsuspecting users on inscrutable XML pages. Many of those problems will be resolved to a large degree by the integration of RSS into everything that Microsoft puts out. But that still won’t solve the real problem — most people don’t have the time or inclination to organize their media and information consumption around feeds. They want some control, but not if that means managing 100+ feeds. The feed life is for information junkies and will likely remain that way.

Happy New Year.

Comments (21 Responses so far)

  1. 2007 Predictions » Publishing 2.0

  2. 2007 Predictions Publishing 2.0

  3. ALex Barnett, Ted Neward, Paul Colligan, Radiolicious, Cre8pc, Ari Paparo, Andy Beal, Tim Converse, Avinash Kaushik, Blogging Stocks, Stuntdubl, MobHappy, Cameron Olthuis, Mark Blevis, TNL.net, Techie Diva, Scott Karp, Fast Forward, Typical Mac User, EirePreneur, David Card at Jupiterresearch, PopSci, Robert Cringley, Technology Evangelist, Pat Robertson, BBC and Yahoo Buzz. Posted in Blogosphere Highlights | Permalink

  4. ALex Barnett, Ted Neward, Paul Colligan, Radiolicious, Cre8pc, Ari Paparo, Andy Beal, Tim Converse, Avinash Kaushik, Blogging Stocks, Stuntdubl, MobHappy, Cameron Olthuis, Mark Blevis, TNL.net, Techie Diva, Scott Karp, Fast Forward, Typical Mac User, EirePreneur, David Card at Jupiterresearch, PopSci, Robert Cringley, Technology Evangelist, Pat Robertson, BBC and Yahoo Buzz. Posted in Blogosphere Highlights | Permalink

  5. ALex Barnett, Ted Neward, Paul Colligan, Radiolicious, Cre8pc, Ari Paparo, Andy Beal, Tim Converse, Avinash Kaushik, Blogging Stocks, Stuntdubl, MobHappy, Cameron Olthuis, Mark Blevis, TNL.net, Techie Diva, Scott Karp, Fast Forward, Typical Mac User, EirePreneur, David Card at Jupiterresearch, PopSci, Robert Cringley, Technology Evangelist, Pat Robertson, BBC and Yahoo Buzz. Posted in Blogosphere Highlights | Permalink

  6. ALex Barnett, Ted Neward, Paul Colligan, Radiolicious, Cre8pc, Ari Paparo, Andy Beal, Tim Converse, Avinash Kaushik, Blogging Stocks, Stuntdubl, MobHappy, Cameron Olthuis, Mark Blevis, TNL.net, Techie Diva, Scott Karp, Fast Forward, Typical Mac User, EirePreneur, David Card at Jupiterresearch, PopSci, Robert Cringley, Technology Evangelist, Pat Robertson, BBC and Yahoo Buzz. Posted in Blogosphere Highlights | Permalink

  7. Scott Karp said a major publication would go online only in 2007. Wired said a newspaper would stop publishing in print in 2007. I was skeptical. Jeff Javis backed me up. Jeff and I were wrong. The Weekly World News is going online only

  8. What do you think about e-mail RSS subscriptions? Is there potential for RSS growth there? Most people I work with don’t know anything about feed aggregator sites but seem very comfortable receiving e-mail from trusted sources.

  9. Brad, I think that email, for all its shortcomings and lack of use among the youngest generation, remains a killer app.

  10. [...] Publishing 2.0: 2007 Predictions Scott Karp predicts a “major print publication” will cease publishing in print in 2007. “The real tipping point,” he writes, “will happen when a publisher convinces top advertisers to value ads on the web-only pub as much (or nearly as much) as the valued (tags: advertising publishing online) [...]

  11. [...] In various year-end prognostications, some have been predicting that a major paper will cease publication and shift to the internet this year: see Scott Karp and Wired. Howard Owens disagrees and so do I. It will come, but not yet, for there is still profit to be made in print and sluggish advertisers still aren’t ready to support the new medium — even if that’s where their customers are — and shut-down costs remain high. I think that within, say, five years, we could see a paper make a strategic move entirely online. But if such a shift comes in the meantime, I think it will be the result of bankruptcy, not strategy: Just as some magazines have folded but supposedly lived on online, so will we see this as a last-ditch effort to keep a brand and business alive. [...]

  12. [...] janvier 1st, 2007 C’est le temps des voeux et des prédictions risquées, peu importe qu’elles se réalisent ou non. Certaines ont retenu mon attention: chez John Battelle, chez Scott Karp. [...]

  13. [...] 2007 Predictions (Publishing 2.0) [...]

  14. [...] Of The Year can make one prediction for 2007. Be smart, and be brief. 1 comment Share/Send Sphere Topic: Asides, Reporter’s Log Tags: Predictions2007 [...]

  15. I think RSS wont succeed until those who use are reading RSS aren’t “reading RSS” anymore than when you are on the internet you aren’t reading HTML.

    Although the integration in IE7 is a plus.

  16. [...] Everybody agrees that the term UGC is revolting, but no-one can agree on a satisfactory alternative. Publishing 2.0’s Scott Karp, in his latest Blog Herald piece, picks on the “user” part. He argues that the problem with this term is that it is used to differentiate “users” from publishers, but that the whole point of the media revolution is that people who write blogs and create MySpace pages are publishers too. There has been a leveling of the playing field that renders largely meaningless the distinction between “users” and “publishers” — we’re all publishers now, and we’re all competing for the finite pie of attention. The problem is that the discourse on trends in online media still clings to the language of “us” and “them,” when it is all about the breakdown of that distinction.He argues that big publishers still “use” the network in the same way as small publishers (the people formerly known as users, formerly known as the audience) so it is time, he said, to recognise that the tools do not define the activity, or the output, or the people doing it.• New Year resolutions Poynter columnist Butch Ward suggests five new year resolutions for the newsroom: get to know your staff better; talk to your audience more; build new sources; learn new stuff; and brainstorm ideas with different departments. Will all this be forgotten by February?• And New Year predictions Meanwhile Karp again, on Publishing 2.0, makes a few fairly safe predictions for 2007 and these are always amusing: major print publication packs up; Google’s growth slows; more Web 2.0 firms close than launch; online video ad grows less than expected; and RSS doesn’t make it mainstream.• Sex on mobiles OK, so Variety managed to get ‘sex’ into a headline, which always helps with the search results. Basically Sex and the City and Six Feet Under will both be available as part of a video-on-demand service for mobile phone users in South Korea. HBO partnered with SK Telecom for the deal.• Defunct VOD firm sues Apple, Google & Napster Apple, Google and Napster are all being sued for patent infringement by Intertainer, a video-on-demand company that closed down in 2002. Variety reports that since Intertainer closed its online movie business it has focused on suing other digital media firms, and now claims Apple, Google and Napster have violated one of its content management patents. CEO Jonathan Taplin would not comment on why the company is targeting those three companies when similar software is used across the industry, but it is thought Intertainer may have signed licencing agreements with other firms like Yahoo and AOL.• A wikkle project for someone Steve Yelvington had a grumble last month about the Wikipedia entry for online newspapers, which he said “may be the worst page in the entire collection”. Since then someone’s furnished the page with a bunch of examples but the text is still pretty droll. Anyone bored? [...]

  17. Scott, here is my related prediction, just the one, regarding the coming year.

    Downside of the 2007 Upside
    http://alwayson.goingon.com/permalink/post/8356

  18. [...] Scott Karp: 2007 Predictions [...]

  19. [...] Note, I am not calling these "predictions" as they are really more of a reflection on what types of projects and themes we saw in the past year and what themes we expect to continue to grow in the new.  If you do want some predictions, look here or here or here. [...]

  20. [...] the first of my 2007 predictions has come to pass. And it’s only March. Google shareholders better hope this isn’t the [...]

  21. yay, looks like 2007 was completely different from the expected…
    move same predictions to 2008, maybe? :-)

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