I can tell you what is really gonna happen, I am in the industry, but you wouldn’t believe it if I told you. Nobody does.

“The first industry to suffer the slings and arrows of digital technology was the music recording industry”

The music recording industry is alive and well. In fact, there are more recording studios now than ever before thanks to digital technology. The difference, is that most of these studios are now owned by the artists and exist in their bedrooms and basements.

What is being killed is not the recording industry but the marketing cartel that controlled it for several decades.

“In a desperate, senseless, lunatic attempt to save the collapse of their business, the recording industry has declared jihad on their own consumers”

Actually, it hasn’t. The customer of the recording industry cartel was not us the consumer, but rather the “artists” who’s only means of getting their content delivered to us the consumer was thru this fraudulent cartel which acted as a gatekeeper to both the radio industry and the retail shelves. The internet simply opened a new gate. This was not the only gate, college radio had existed for decades, however this gate was huge – big enough to rival the recording industry cartel. For the first time, thanks to digital technology, an artist could record an album, design it’s packaging, (manufacturing is actually cheap), and now find and reach a customer to deliver it to – all without the need for the recording industry cartel.

“Is it possible for an industry to develop a business model based entirely on litigation?”

No…thankfully…

Many think this is a first time case. It’s not…it happened before in American history with the automobile, we just don’t remember it. Ford ran into legal issues when it launched it’s automobiles. At the time their was an automobile manufacturer association which required payment for any automobile manufactured. Ford was not a part of this association. The battle went to the court. Ford Motor Company showed they could deliver a better product, for cheaper, without the said organization. At first public opinion was torn. But when the association started suing the purchaser’s of Ford public opinion began to swell against the association.

We see the same thing occurring today. As RIAA focus’ more and more on litigation (much akin to recent SCO case involving Unix/Linux). Public opinion is growing against RIAA. Furthermore, a large group of artists, long ripped off by said organization are also opposed to RIAA. Now, as RIAA tries to expand their claims further and further beyond a realistic scope in an attempt to counter a revenue coffer running dry, they are essentially digging their own grave. While in the immediacy RIAA may have moments of success, new laws passed with harsher penalties and expanding their control. Eventually, RIAA will stand before the U.S. court system and on the other side of the aisle will stand the consumers, artists and new vendors like Apple’s iTunes. Who will make the case that they can offer a business model that is more profitable for the artist and more affordable to the consumer. Furthermore, this battle will rip open the history books – in which case, all of RIAA’s fraudulent book keeping and accounting practices and contract loopholes for avoiding paying their artists that made them uber-profitable over the years will equate to the hammer that nails the coffin shut.

So no, an industry is not dead….merely a marketing company that was ripping off it’s client, it’s client’s customers will die.

In other words, ripping the CD in order to share the files on a P2P file sharing site. NOT, as has really been erroneously communicated in most places, _just_ ripping the CDS to your computer for backup, or loading to your iPod.

Wow, your headline is so “2000.”

I always enjoy your commentary, but I really think just like anything else, it’s all about the content and not the distribution method. If the Beatles were all alive and released some new stuff and only put it on vinyl, it would still be #1 and sell millions. The Internet has without a doubt allowed new artists to be discovered and get their talents to a large audience without the need of big record companies promoting it and taking their share.

At a recent concert I went to, the band told everyone to send a text and they would receive the song they were just about to perform on their phones. Doing this along with bands offering live recordings of their shows (I think Kiss was the first band to do it) is thinking “out-of-the-box.”

Happy New Year, Scott.

try to imagine it backwards: what if the music industry of today were that of the future – as Jon is projecting it(i.e. an industry of many, small players, each with their own niche audience and fair copyright policies) and suddenly it had to change into the industry we all know (i.e. a centralized money machine that spits out the same artists on a conveyor belt, scoffs at diversity and small artists and puts a tiny lawyer in each cd case).

we’d be similarly scared, wouldn’t we?

I figured you did. I just wanted to point that out. And yes, it will be really interesting to see where the selling of music goes. I’m an optimist though. I don’t think that most people aren’t willing to pay for music – they just aren’t willing to pay for all the music they want.

I also think that giving away and sharing music contributes to the future purchase of music. There are countless bands that I’ve discovered through free means, that I’ve then gone and purchased several of their albums. Not to mention, seeing them in concert, buying their swag, etc…, like you suggested in your comment.

I meant the big recording companies. The traditional music recording business will likely die, but music itself will always flourish, especially now that anyone who can make great music can get free distribution.

What remains to be see is whether SELLING music is still a big business, or whether the business becomes all about concerts and merchandise, with the music just being the hook.

Also, here is a great talk on copyright.

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/187